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Craps principle : ウィキペディア英語版
Craps principle
In probability theory, the craps principle is a theorem about event probabilities under repeated iid trials. Let E_1 and E_2 denote two mutually exclusive events which might occur on a given trial. Then for each trial, the conditional probability that E_1 occurs given that E_1 or E_2 occur is
:\operatorname\left(E_1\cup E_2\right )=\frac()}
The events E_1 and E_2 need not be collectively exhaustive.
==Proof==
Since E_1 and E_2 are mutually exclusive,
: \operatorname(E_2 )=\operatorname()+\operatorname()
Also due to mutual exclusion,
: E_1\cap(E_1\cup E_2)=E_1
By conditional probability,
: \operatorname(E_2) )=\operatorname\left(E_1\cup E_2\right )\operatorname\left(E_2\right )
Combining these three yields the desired result.

抄文引用元・出典: フリー百科事典『 ウィキペディア(Wikipedia)
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